Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place?
One-OffSociety & Culture3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 81.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 7:50 PM UTCDec 23, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Same as in previous years.
- Resolve NO if held elsewhere, or not held at all.
- "Silas's place" means where Silas is living at the time, and moves as he does.
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+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
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- No93%
- Yes-4.0pt7%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
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- Above 65 million pounds84%
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+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $18.4K
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- Yes+1.5pt27%
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- Above 1.8 million92%
- Above 1.9 million+1.0pt90%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $32K
- 24h Vol
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- Yes16%
- Total Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 82% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? resolve?
- Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? is scheduled to resolve on December 23, 2026.
- How is Will the Austin LessWrong's 2026 Winter Solstice be held at Silas's place? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Same as in previous years.