Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026?
TechOne-Off4moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 96%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 25, 26, 1:47 AM UTCJan 12, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Tesla unveiled the two seat Cybercab (no steering wheel, no pedals) at its We, Robot event in October 2024, began building it at Giga Texas in 2026, and has announced a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3, 2026.
- Tesla's existing Robotaxi service, live in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando and Tampa, still runs on modified Model Y vehicles, and Tesla has said Cybercab rides begin with employees before the vehicles join the public Robotaxi service.
- Roughly 100 Cybercabs have been reported staged at a Dallas robotaxi hub.
- This market asks how far the Cybercab itself actually gets into public service this year.
- Resolves YES if, at any point on or before 11:59pm US Central time on December 31, 2026, Cybercab vehicles have carried members of the general public on rides booked through Tesla's Robotaxi app on public roads in at least three distinct US metropolitan areas.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 12, 2027.
- How is Will Tesla's Cybercab be carrying public riders in at least 3 US metro areas by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Tesla unveiled the two seat Cybercab (no steering wheel, no pedals) at its We, Robot event in October 2024, began building it at Giga Texas in 2026, and has announced a Cybercab launch event in Austin on September 3, 2026.