What are the current odds for Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 57.8% as of October 11, 2026.

When does Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030? resolve?

Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

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Will Susan Athey win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 57.8%

Forecasters

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binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 38 minutes ago

Mar 9, 23, 4:36 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC

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An economist at Stanford whose work in auction theory (and elsewhere) feels ubiquitous, Susan Athey won the John Bates Clark Medal (whose winners often go on to win Nobel Prizes) in 2007.

Her husband, Guido Imbens, received a Nobel Prize in 2021; before he won, her Wikipedia page was significantly longer than his.
Resolves YES if she wins a Nobel Prize for any year before 2030, and NO otherwise.
Although the Nobel Prize in Economics wasn't technically part of Alfred Nobel's will and is sometimes not considered a "real" Nobel Prize, it counts as one for this market.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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