Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Aug 3, 2026, 9:11 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastNo 99%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 days ago
StaleDec 5, 25, 12:54 AMJul 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Probability Timeline
Yes1%
No99%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolves YES if Sally Rooney, the author of books such as Normal People and Intermezzo, releases a new book, available for sale somewhere, before August 1st 2026.
- Resolves NO if Rooney does not release a new book before August 1st 2026, or the book is not available for sale anywhere before after August 1st.
- Any type of book may count, be it fiction, non-fiction, poetry, etc. Releasing works of writing for free, or for sale but not as physical books does not count.
Open markets
Entertainment
KALSHIInsidious: Out of the Further · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 4099%
- Above 3599%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $521.7K
- 24h Vol
- $121.4K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Dee Valladares+4.0pt22.9%
- Rick Devens+1.0pt17.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer+1.0pt10.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHITop 10 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the Week of Sep 5, 2026?
- Risk It All99%
- stupid song99%
- petal99%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.6K
- 24h Vol
- $98.4K
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31?
- 800 - 900m+22.0pt84%
- 900m+-23.0pt16%
- <400m0%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
- <900m+22.5pt85.6%
- 900 - 920m-23.0pt14.4%
- 920 - 940m-0.2pt0%
KALSHITaylor Swift: Highest daily view count (August 17, 2026 - August 23, 2026)
- Above 14M+29.0pt99%
- Above 13.9M+2.0pt99%
- Above 13M99%
+28 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $149.1K
- Mutiny · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Coyote vs. Acme · Rotten Tomatoes score
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Top US Netflix Movie this week?
- “Insidious: Out of the Further” Opening Weekend Box Office
- "The Odyssey" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Top US Netflix Show this week?
- #2 US Netflix Movie this week?
- WILD: First Week Album Equivalent Units
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Sally Rooney release a new book by August 1st 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of August 7, 2026.
- When does Will Sally Rooney release a new book by August 1st 2026? resolve?
- Will Sally Rooney release a new book by August 1st 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 31, 2026.
- How is Will Sally Rooney release a new book by August 1st 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Sally Rooney, the author of books such as Normal People and Intermezzo, releases a new book, available for sale somewhere, before August 1st 2026.