What are the current odds for Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 69.4% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040? resolve?

Will my SPXL position go to zero before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 11, 2040.

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I have a bit of SPXL, a 3x leveraged ETF.

ETFOne-Off13y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 69.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jun 7, 23, 2:15 AM UTCJan 11, 40, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

I have a bit of SPXL, a 3x leveraged ETF.

Suppose if I sit on it long-term.
Theoretically it could go to 0, if the underlying index declined by >33.3% in one day (before the rebalancing could save it).
In practice this seems unlikely -- we'd expect the exchanges to use a circuit-breaker, or do some sort of rollback.
Will I lose the money? Resolves YES if my SPXL position goes to 0, resolves NO in 2040-Jan if this doesn't happen.