What are the current odds for Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031??

Manifold Markets prices No at 92.5% as of October 26, 2026.

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 92.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 hours ago

Stale

Jun 6, 23, 12:50 PM UTCDec 31, 31, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market is for predicting whether Magnus Carlsen will become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by the year 2031 in classical chess.

The market will resolve to YES if Magnus Carlsen wins any FIDE World Chess Championship in classical chess between now and the end of 2031.
The market will resolve to NO if Magnus Carlsen does not win any FIDE World Chess Championship in classical chess between now and the end of 2031.
The market will be resolved based on the official results of all FIDE World Chess Championships in classical chess held between now and the end of 2031 as announced by FIDE.
If Magnus Carlsen wins any of these championships in classical chess, the market will resolve to YES.
If Magnus Carlsen does not win any of these championships in classical chess, the market will resolve to NO.