Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 17, 26, 9:23 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Paris curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketTurner Prize 2026 Winner
PolymarketLyon curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
PolymarketWill I have a date to prom 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsRules
Last summer I was studying German with the goal of reading original texts.
- I got to B1 before stopping, due to "feeling the AGI" too much and deciding continuing study wasn't the best use of my time.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if, at any point between market creation and Dec 31, 2026, I resume a consistent German self-study routine (or comparable effort — e.g., re-enroll in structured tutoring, plan on enrolling in language school, etc.)
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO at closing.
- As this is a personal matter, the market will resolve based on my own records and verification of my study activity.
