Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 75%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Dec 20, 25, 9:58 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
I failed to get to 30 in 2025 (https://manifold.markets/LuisPedroCoelho/will-i-publish-30-substacks-in-2025), but will give it a go in 2026.
- I will bet 15,000 mana at 75% YES as soon I get the liquidity (in 2025, I bet 5,000 and will lose that).
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if I publish at least 30 unique Substack posts during the calendar year 2026 (January 1, 2026 - December 31, 2026).
- A post counts if it is published on my personal Substack (https://luispedro.substack.com/), but not on any other venue.
- The market will resolve NO if: