What are the current odds for Will I ride an e-scooter or a bike without a helmet within the next three years??

Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of October 30, 2026.

Will I ride an e-scooter or a bike without a helmet within the next three years?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

No 71%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 14 hours ago

Stale

Feb 4, 25, 1:04 PM UTCFeb 4, 28, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

I just left the hospital because I've had an accident with an e-scooter about two hours ago.

I got off relatively lightly, looks like I have a fractured elbow though.
I think it's an unnecessary risk to ride without a helmet, which I'm no longer willing to take.
This market serves as a commitment device for my plan not to ride a bike or e-scooter without a helmet for the next three years.
Will I make it?
I will not bet on this market.