Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 88%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 10, 23, 7:44 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Australia-Asia Power Link deliver 900 megawatts of electricity to Darwin by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the most numerous type of fusion power plant in 2100?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Based on deal made here: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/
- I doubt an exact Megawatt figure will be published, but I'll resolve on an announcement that energy is flowing in 2028 that is unaccompanied by serious doubt about the meaningfulness of the amount of power being transferred.
- If Helion is purchased/merged/rebranded, this market will still resolve yes if its descendant organization delievers the power
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029? resolve?
- Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Based on deal made here: https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/