Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 59.2%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Jun 29, 23, 7:18 PM UTCOct 1, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Noam Chomsky publicly admit his theory of linguistics is mostly wrong before turning 100?
Manifold MarketsWill Hasan Piker ever admit that he shocked his dog? [ within 1 year ]
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Manifold MarketsWill Harvard tuition exceed $63,000 in 2026?
ForecastExWill Harvard tuition exceed $60,000 in 2026?
ForecastExWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
ForecastExRules
If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is less than 10.0% Black, this market resolves yes.
- Methodology: the Crimson publishes demographics of each admitted class that remains searchable.
- From the class of 2017 to 2026 this figure as ranged from 9.7% (2017) to 15.8% (2024).
- See e.g. https://features.thecrimson.com/2014/freshman-survey/makeup/
Open markets
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64+5.0pt48.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.1%
- <4013.6%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.9K
- 24h Vol
- $10.5K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No86%
- Yes+12.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $12.3K
- 24h Vol
- $4.5K
KALSHIWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- No87%
- Yes+1.0pt13%
- Total Vol
- $9.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.7K
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-4.0pt75.3%
- Yes+4.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $16.7K
- 24h Vol
- $939.6
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028? resolve?
- Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2028.
- How is Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If any Harvard College (undergraduate) class up to and including the class of 2032 (admitted in the fall of 2028) is less than 10.0% Black, this market resolves yes.