Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Apr 6, 26, 6:23 PM UTCMar 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China polysilicon production for 2026 exceed 1500 kt?
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ForecastExRules
This market resolves YES if China's total polysilicon production (all grades, HS 2804.61) for the full calendar year 2026 exceeds 2200 kt, as reported by CPIA or USGS MCS.
- YES if: China polysilicon production for 2026 >= 2200 kt NO if: China polysilicon production for 2026 < 2200 kt
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- CPIA annual polysilicon production report
- USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Silicon chapter (released February annually)
- InfoLink Consulting annual polysilicon supply report
