Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.8%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 4, 26, 2:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/2007504591861231918
- Update 2026-01-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the general gist of the post, not on whether every single prediction is correct.
- Individual incorrect predictions will not necessarily cause the market to resolve NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Armchair Warlord's post on Venezuela stand up by the end of the year??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Armchair Warlord's post on Venezuela stand up by the end of the year? resolve?
- Will Armchair Warlord's post on Venezuela stand up by the end of the year? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Armchair Warlord's post on Venezuela stand up by the end of the year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://x.com/ArmchairW/status/2007504591861231918