Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (95.1%)
Resolved: Oct 24, 2026, 3:23 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes95.1%
No4.900000000000006%
Won
Lost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Minor upgrades of existing products do not count as novel.
- Bold innovative things that haven't been done before do count as novel.
- Things that have been done before by other companies but never by Apple may count as novel, if they're not pathetic and dumb.
- Some examples:
- An upgraded Macbook that gets 30% better performance is not novel.
- A 2-in-1 Macbook that folds back to turn into an iPad is novel.