What are the current odds for Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040??

Manifold Markets prices No at 77.8% as of October 26, 2026.

Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?

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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 77.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Stale

Feb 6, 23, 7:12 PM UTCDec 31, 40, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal.

That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm: Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?