Will a Google Play alternative make at least 1b in annual revenue in 2026?
TechOne-OffBusiness & CorporateCrime & Justice2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 91.6%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 24, 11:57 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Space datacenter industry generates $100M+ annual revenue by December 31, 2029
Manifold MarketsWill WeChat be available in the Google play store continuously through mid 2028?
Manifold MarketsBreaking Google Play Store 30% monopoly by 2030
Manifold MarketsWhat is the largest annual revenue a single company will get via mechanistic interpretability of deep learning models in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Oracle lose the JavaScript trademark by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever go to jail after being convicted of a crime?
Manifold MarketsRules
The Google / Epic lawsuit seems to be opening up the Android ecosystem to third party app stores.
- Resolves YES if there is credible evidence that there is an Android app store other than Google Play that makes at least 1 billion in revenue from Android devices during 2026.
- Stores locked to a single manufacturer (like Samsung galaxy store) are excluded from this market, since they aren’t targeting the Android ecosystem as a whole.
- I won’t trade on this market
