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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Inflation
  3. Who will be the first trillionaire?
Manifold Markets

Who will be the first trillionaire?

InflationTech4y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Elon Musk 99%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters

9

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Dec 29, 25, 5:04 PMDec 29, 30, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Manifold Markets
Jeff Bezos
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Larry Ellison
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Mark Zuckerberg
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Jensen Huang
0.2%
Manifold Markets
Larry Page
0.2%

Selected outcome

Elon Musk99%

Rules

Market Description:

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution criteria:
  • Resolves to the first person whose net worth reaches $1,000,000,000,000 USD (one trillion US dollars) as reported by Bloomberg Billionaires Index OR Forbes Real-Time Billionaires.
  • Net worth must be publicly reported by at least one of the above sources
  • Intraday spikes count (no minimum holding period)
  • Nominal USD — no inflation adjustment

Related Markets

Manifold Markets

Which of the 7 current largest companies by market cap will still be in the top 7 EOY 2026

$41.8
NVIDIA: 94.6%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
How high will inflation get in 2026?

How high will inflation get in 2026?

$29.9K
Above 4%: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - June 2026

$10.3K
40.0–42.9: 34%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY - May 2026

Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY - May 2026

$7K
6.0%–6.9%: 77%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 18% for December 2026?

$1.5K
Yes: 2%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will the inflation rate reach or exceed X at any point during 2026?

$827.6
y ≥ 2.0%: 100%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,168.01+0.65%SolanaSOL$64.29-1.27%EthereumETH$1,639.71-0.14%DogecoinDOGE$0.084-1.02%BNBBNB$592.25-0.11%XRPXRP$1.11-2.21%

Related News

BlackRock warns of energy shock as May CPI is set to show acceleration in inflationCoindeskBitcoin braces for inflation shock as CPI puts bulls on edgeCrypto NewsBlame bitcoin's tumble on rising inflation, not Strategy, 10xResearch arguesCoindeskU.S. inflation, European Central Bank rate decision: Crypto Week AheadCoindeskBNP Paribas warns inflation threat could trigger three Fed hikesCrypto NewsGoogle Unveils Gemini 3.5 and AI Upgrades at I/O 2026Blockchain.News

Rules

Market Description:

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution criteria:
  • Resolves to the first person whose net worth reaches $1,000,000,000,000 USD (one trillion US dollars) as reported by Bloomberg Billionaires Index OR Forbes Real-Time Billionaires.
  • Net worth must be publicly reported by at least one of the above sources
  • Intraday spikes count (no minimum holding period)
  • Nominal USD — no inflation adjustment