Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2030 94.5%+12.2ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+12.2 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 25, 12:20 PM UTCFeb 2, 30, 12:12 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Super Smash Bros. Melee come to Nintendo Switch Online before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Nintendo announce a new mainline Super Smash Bros. game before Jan 1st 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released?
Manifold MarketsWho will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
PolymarketWill Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
PolymarketPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiRules
A remake / deluxe re-release / remaster / switch 2 edition / port / virtual console release / etc. of an older game doesn't count - it has to be a new game.
- This is a cumulative market, and each answer resolves independently, so e.g. if it releases in 2028 sometime, "the named outcome" and "the named outcome" will resolve NO, and the others will resolve Yes.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2030 at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released? resolve?
- When will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2030.
- How is When will the next Super Smash Bros. game be released? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A remake / deluxe re-release / remaster / switch 2 edition / port / virtual console release / etc. of an older game doesn't count - it has to be a new game.