Current community forecast
2027-2028 34%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Oct 8, 25, 6:11 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 7:07 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Us market crash in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a real estate crash in the US in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)
Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the calendar date of the S&P 500’s last all‑time closing high (price index) immediately preceding the next “bubble burst,” defined as a ≥35% peak‑to‑trough decline in the S&P 500 closing level that is reached within 18 months and occurs in a window spanning from 6 months before to 12 months after the official start month of the next U.S. recession as dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
- The qualifying peak date is the resolution date.
- Data sources: NBER recession dates and announcements; S&P 500 daily close on FRED.
- Measurement details: use the S&P 500 price index daily close (no dividends), peak and trough measured on closing values, and the drawdown threshold is calculated as (trough_close − peak_close) / peak_close ≤ −35% within 18 months of the peak.
- If multiple peaks satisfy the criteria for the same recession window, resolve to the earliest qualifying peak date.
Open markets
CryptoPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+0.9pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $554.2K
- 24h Vol
- $500.1K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.6pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.5K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
- What price will Ethereum hit on September 8?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next big economic crash occur??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027-2028 at 34% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will the next big economic crash occur? resolve?
- When will the next big economic crash occur? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.
- How is When will the next big economic crash occur? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria