Current community forecast
2027-2028 37.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 8, 25, 6:11 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 7:07 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the calendar date of the S&P 500’s last all‑time closing high (price index) immediately preceding the next “bubble burst,” defined as a ≥35% peak‑to‑trough decline in the S&P 500 closing level that is reached within 18 months and occurs in a window spanning from 6 months before to 12 months after the official start month of the next U.S. recession as dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
- The qualifying peak date is the resolution date.
- Data sources: NBER recession dates and announcements; S&P 500 daily close on FRED.
- Measurement details: use the S&P 500 price index daily close (no dividends), peak and trough measured on closing values, and the drawdown threshold is calculated as (trough_close − peak_close) / peak_close ≤ −35% within 18 months of the peak.
- If multiple peaks satisfy the criteria for the same recession window, resolve to the earliest qualifying peak date.
