Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore Jan 2028 59%+9.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+9.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleAug 17, 26, 8:16 AMDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Resolves based on the date of first documented autonomous driving of a Tesla Semi on publicly accessible roads.
- The requirements are intended to be quite minimal, but to be specific:
- The driving/testing program must be approved by relevant authorities (similarly to have other autonomous car deployments/testing were approved)
- At least 10 semis driving for at least a week
- Must cover at least 1000 miles of roads with non-negligible traffic levels (at least 1 car per minute on average)
- Human oversight or a safety driver is OK as long as the testing program clearly attempts full self driving.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads??
- Manifold Markets prices Before Jan 2028 at 59% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads? resolve?
- When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is When will Tesla Semi first drive autonomously on public roads? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on the date of first documented autonomous driving of a Tesla Semi on publicly accessible roads.
