Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastWhen Manifold go defunct, Kalshi will still be running 66.2%Leader of 17 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 9, 24, 11:24 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
When the Manifold Market's servers cease operations permanently, preventing users from placing bets, I will consider Manifold to be defunct—even if viewing the markets is still possible.
- Should Manifold Markets undergo a name change or be acquired by another company, I will regard the successor as the entity for resolution, provided the core functionality of placing bets on markets remains intact