Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: M250–999 (93.3%)
Resolved: Jul 26, 2026, 4:50 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastM250–999 93.3%+58.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleJul 12, 26, 10:42 PMJul 26, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
<M2506.2%
M250–99993.3%
M1000–29990.2%
M3000+0.2%
93.3%
6.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Rules
Resolves to the bucket matching the #1 player's total profit on the tournament leaderboard at close (July 25), as displayed on the tournament page.
- Note this market is self-referential: profit made here counts toward the leaderboard it's betting on.
- 🏆 This market is part of The Introductory Tournaments Tournament, the first-ever tournament on Manifold Tournaments — an unofficial site for running tournaments on top of Manifold markets.
- Rankings are by total profit across the tournament's markets, computed live on the tournament page.
- How to join: signups are open through July 18 — go to the tournament page, hit Join, and enter your Manifold username.
- The tournament runs July 18–25.
