Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAnthropic or Meta release a new model 92.2%Leader of 25 outcomes
Forecasters
15
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.6 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 26, 4:19 AM UTCOct 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold Markets▶️Which Youtube channels will release at least one video in September 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold Markets🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRules
I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.
Open markets
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $35.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Total Vol
- $10.2K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Total Vol
- $600
- 24h Vol
- $600
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.5K
- 24h Vol
- $487.1
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 🎃What will happen in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]?
- Manifold Markets prices Anthropic or Meta release a new model at 92% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does 🎃What will happen in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] resolve?
- 🎃What will happen in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is 🎃What will happen in October 2026? [ADD RESPONSES] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.