Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: between 28 and 34 (inclusive)
Resolved: Aug 5, 2026, 7:02 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 21, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastbetween 28 and 34 (inclusive) 99.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 days ago
StaleJul 20, 25, 5:20 AMJul 21, 26, 6:59 AM
Probability Timeline
20 or less0.1%
between 21 and 27 (inclusive)0.1%
between 28 and 34 (inclusive)99.7%
35 or more0.1%
99.7%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Rules
will be decided by the cutoff stated on the official IMO website after the competition has concluded
- cutoffs in recent years:
- the cutoffs for all the previous years are at https://www.imo-official.org/results_year.aspx?column=year&order=desc, in the "G" sub-column of the cutoffs column
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $423.8K
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 31-3.0pt8%
- November 30-2.0pt6%
- October 31-1.0pt4%
+6 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-5.0pt36.1%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt22.7%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt11.3%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Aug 21, 2026?
- Above $83.99+8.0pt99%
- Above $83.49+5.0pt99%
- Above $76.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $185.4K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.080+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.80099%
- Above 4.040+1.0pt99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $248.4K
POLYMARKETWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $4,600+48.4pt100%
- ↑ $4,500+64.0pt100%
- ↑ $4,400+15.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 21, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Brent crude oil price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Silver price on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
- What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?
- Silver price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the cutoff for gold in IMO 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices between 28 and 34 (inclusive) at 100% as of July 29, 2026.
- When does What will be the cutoff for gold in IMO 2026? resolve?
- What will be the cutoff for gold in IMO 2026? is scheduled to resolve on July 21, 2026.
- How is What will be the cutoff for gold in IMO 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: will be decided by the cutoff stated on the official IMO website after the competition has concluded