Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.7%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 23, 7:24 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to YES if I become extremely confident that Covid-19 was intentionally manufactored in a lab and intentionally released, and to NO if I become extremely confident that it wasn't.
- This won't happen based on a single article or press release or youtube video; it will only happen once there is overwhelming evidence in one direction, coming from a broad range of people who have no conflict of interest.
- (Basically, you can rest assured I'm not going to resolve this market until most traders agree I should.)
- See @/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory for the more general question of whether it came from a lab at all, including accidental leaks.
