Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast4:40:00 100%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 26, 4:36 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:26 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be first to perform a perfect Super Mario Bros. 1 speedrun?
Manifold MarketsWill the 120 Star speedrun World Record for Super Mario 64 be less than 1h34m00s on Jan 1st 2028? (1h33mXXs)
Manifold MarketsWill the 120 Star speedrun World Record for Super Mario 64 be less than 1h35m00s on Jan 1st 2028? (1h34mXXs)
Manifold MarketsAI vs Humanity: First to Sub 2h All Achievements Minecraft speedrun?
Manifold MarketsWho will win DEATH BATTLE: Naruto vs Luffy? (Naruto vs One Piece)
Manifold MarketsDantes banned from Twitch this year?
KalshiRules
Resolution Criteria
- The world record time will be determined by the official Speedrun.com leaderboard for Hollow Knight: Silksong, the 100% speedrun category time (in minutes and seconds) as listed on the leaderboard, No Major Glitches.
- This market will consider the Load Removed Time to be the 'true' speedrun time.
- The market resolves YES for each option when a run is shown on that leaderboard with a time LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO.
- (A run of 4:38:50 resolves 4:40 as YES but does not resolve 4:35) At 11:59 PM EST Dec 31, 2026, each remaining entry resolves NO.
- A run that has been submitted but is not shown on the Speedrun.com leaderboard at 11:59 PM EST Dec 31, 2026 will not count.
