Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates 50%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
1
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 2, 26, 1:40 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Size of largest company to fail due to cyber attacks by EoY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a company of at least $100M, $1B, etc. fail due to cyber attacks? (by EoY 2027)
Manifold MarketsWill the Ethereum L1 use quantum information transmission by 2035?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Nov 2, 2026 at 5pm EST?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
KalshiRules
A new paper from Google demonstrates that there are procedures that break 256-bit ECDLP over secp256k1 with, optionally:
- ≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
- ≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
- This question asks if improvements will be made to this frontier by EoY 2028.