Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 10:44 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best Picture nominees? (2027 Oscars)
Manifold MarketsOscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
PolymarketBest Picture Nominees? (2027 Oscars)
Manifold MarketsWill Project Hail Mary be nominated for Best Picture?
Manifold Markets[WAY TOO EARLY] Best Picture winner? (2027 Oscars)
Manifold MarketsOscar Winner: Best Picture
KalshiRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: ""One Battle After Another" wins the Academy Award for Best Picture" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.