Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 10:21 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 85%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 13, 23, 4:17 PM UTCJul 2, 31, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By the year 2030, renewable energy sources will account for more than 50% of the world's total energy consumption.
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ForecastExRules
Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve as Yes if, in any year from 2023 to 2030, inclusive, the total global consumption of primary energy from solar power on Earth exceeds the consumption of primary energy from all other individual renewable energy sources on Earth for the year (meaning solar must be the largest source of renewable energy, it need not exceed the sum of all other renewables).
- For the purposes of this question, renewables include, but are not limited to, solar, wind, hydroelectric, geothermal, and bioenergy.
- Resolution will be determined according to data published in the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy.
