Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJul 30, 25, 8:39 AM UTCJul 4, 76, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves to 'Yes' if a film with a primary focus on the American Revolution ranks in the all-time top 10 of the domestic box office by the American Tricentennial, July 4, 2076.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "Yes" if a film with a primary focus on the American Revolution ranks within the all-time top 10 of the domestic box office by July 4, 2076.
- The ranking will be determined based on cumulative box office gross as reported by a reputable source such as Box Office Mojo or The Numbers.
- The film must be released by a Hollywood studio and have its primary setting and narrative centered on the American Revolution.
- Historically, films centered on the American Revolution have struggled to achieve significant box office success.
