Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.3%
Forecasters
96
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 30 minutes ago
Nov 20, 22, 3:41 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If any human who has been cryonically-preserved prior to market creation is successfully revived, this resolves to YES.
- (This means that the revived person must behave nearly identically to the person they were before the preservation, with the same memories, personality, etc. Minor changes such as having forgotten the short-term memories created right before their death are fine.
- What matters is whether people who knew them before their death would reasonably say "yup, that's Bob".
- Philosophical arguments that they're not the "same person" due to the cessation of brain activity or being made out of different molecules are irrelevant.)
- If the state of science and technology advances to the point where we can state without any doubt whatsoever that there is not enough information left in those preserved brains to revive someone who could reasonably be called the same person, or that the information does exist but fundamental laws of physics prevent us from accessing it or using it to recreate the person, this market resolves to NO.
- If all preserved brains that exist as of market creation in the top 10% of preservation quality are destroyed and none of the brains in worse shape are able to be reanimated, this resolves N/A. (Preservation quality determined by factors like how long they spent at room temperature before being frozen, how damaged the brain was by physical trauma, the state of vitrification technology used on them, etc.)