Did pharma's trade network reorganize more than agriculture's under COVID? (H3-P, 2017→2022)
MiningOne-OffCommoditiesTrade PolicyManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (59%)
Resolved: Aug 8, 2026, 1:42 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 59%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 days ago
StaleJul 14, 26, 1:07 PMAug 7, 26, 9:00 PM
Trends
59%
41%
Rules
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).
- Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
- Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
- The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
- Resolves YES iff Δ(pharmaceuticals, SCTG 21) > Δ(agriculture, SCTG 01–05), where Δ = 1 − cosine similarity of the commodity's 2017 vs 2022 edge-weight vectors.
- Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems
