Current community forecast
No 79.7%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Nov 9, 23, 10:36 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Nadine Dorries' new book claims that, amongst other things, "A shadowy cabal, Dorries calls ‘the movement’, has been pulling strings in the Conservative party for years" and "a very frightening individual I have codenamed Dr No [...] frequently plotted against Johnson and is now grooming Kemi Badenoch for Tory leader".
- My current position on these allegations are that they're made by someone who doesn't have the strongest grip on the facts of reality and has suddenly found herself out of a job and with a need to make some cash quickly.
- Resolves YES at market close if I believe that the allegations as presented are broadly true if somewhat overdramatised.
- Otherwise resolves NO.
- If I'm not confident either way then I will resolve to my % credence that the claims are true.
- As this is an opinion market I will not bet.
