Conditional on at least 2 degrees of global warming by 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
WeatherOne-OffScienceSociety & Culture
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78.5%
Forecasters
40
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 11, 22, 3:12 AM UTCJan 1, 00, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
The condition is met if we ever cross the threshold, even if global temperatures are later brought below it.
- The resolution criterion is met if world population ever dips below 1 billion for any length of time before 2100.
- Similar markets for various amounts of warming:
