Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo change (65%) 26.3%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 8, 26, 11:28 AM UTCMay 2, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will same-sex marriage be banned in any country that has currently legalized it, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage become legal in Vietnam before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill same-sex marriage be federally guaranteed in the US for all of now through 2026?
Manifold MarketsHarry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
KalshiWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
ForecastExWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
ForecastExRules
Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.
- How much will the results change between then and the May 2027 poll?
- Since 2016, the results have been, in chronological order: 61%, 64%, 67%, 63%, 67%, 70%, 71%, 71%, 69%, 68%, 65%.
- I will not bet on this market.
Open markets
Society & Culture
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt44.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt29.7%
- <40-7.0pt13.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $29.4K
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane89%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Renoir84%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9K
- 24h Vol
- $9K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $7.9K
- 24h Vol
- $6.7K
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Total Vol
- $21.1K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Total Vol
- $17.9K
- 24h Vol
- $1.1K
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $158.3K
- 24h Vol
- $287.1
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No change (65%) at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 resolve?
- Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 is scheduled to resolve on May 2, 2027.
- How is Change in US support for same-sex marriage, 2026-2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Each year, Gallup runs a survey asking Americans "Do you think marriages between same-sex couples should or should not be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages?" The most recent such poll, run in May 2026, showed support at 65%.