Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight 80%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-9.9 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 5, 25, 2:15 AM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves based on the date of the first reported supersonic passenger-carrying flight of the Boom Overture aircraft.
- For a given year of resolution, all markets up to the year before will resolve "NO", then all markets for that year and later will resolve "yes".
- So for example, if the Overture makes its first passenger-carrying flight on 2030-06-01, then "the named outcome":"the named outcome" will resolve "NO", and "the named outcome":"the named outcome" will resolve "YES".
- If the flight was conducted at the end of one year but the press release made at the start of the next, I will resolve based on the datetime of the flight, not the press release.
- "Passenger-carrying" is a little vague, but I'll take this to be carrying non-engineering and non-pilot passengers who do not work for Boom, as on a maiden flight.
- They do not need to have paid for that ticket to be classified as "passengers".
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $82,000 or above99%
- $82,250 or above99%
- $81,750 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- 200-219+26.0pt67%
- 220-239+26.0pt32%
- 240-259-0.1pt1%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBitcoin price at the end of 2026
- 85,000 to 89,999.99-0.9pt11.8%
- 80,000 to 84,999.99-0.5pt11.8%
- 75,000 to 79,999.99+0.2pt9.8%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $65,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $66,500 or above99%
- $67,000 or above99%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 22, 2026 at 9am EDT?
- $85,500 or above99%
- $85,400 or above99%
- $85,300 or above99%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $563.6K
- 24h Vol
- $526.1K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 18 - September 25, 2026?
- 200-219+7.0pt34%
- 220-239+12.0pt22.6%
- 180-199-15.5pt19.8%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight??
- Manifold Markets prices Boom Overture will not make a supersonic passenger-carrying flight at 80% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight? resolve?
- By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is By when will the Boom Overture make its first supersonic passenger-carrying flight? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on the date of the first reported supersonic passenger-carrying flight of the Boom Overture aircraft.