Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.6%
Forecasters
27
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 17, 24, 2:54 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Venice Film Festival: Venice Film Festival: Silver Lion – Award for Best Director
KalshiWill a movie made entirely by artificial intelligence win an Academy Award by 2030?
Manifold MarketsOscar Winner: Best Picture
KalshiOscar nominees: Best Picture
KalshiOscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
PolymarketOscars 2027: Best Picture Nominations
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By 2040, will a superhero movie win an academy award for best picture??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By 2040, will a superhero movie win an academy award for best picture? resolve?
- By 2040, will a superhero movie win an academy award for best picture? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.