Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83.5%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 minutes ago
May 23, 23, 1:10 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
I can buy a level 4 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
Manifold MarketsI can buy a level 5 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
Manifold MarketsWill there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an autonomous driving car that can drive reliably in most of India, by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 19, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 23, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRules
Market resolves to YES if Kelly Blue Book, Edmunds, Consumer Reports or another similarly credible source estimates that a BEV/electric car legally sold in the U.S with a minimum range of 120 miles has a lower TCO (total cost of ownership) per mile over the lifetime of the vehicle when excluding depreciation and all tax credits than any new ICE/gas-powered car of the same model year before year end 2030.
- To my knowledge, the lowest TCO BEV available in the U.S today is a Tesla Model 3, at one point available for 39,900$.
- I suspect that it costs roughly 28,000$ to build a Tesla Model 3.
- I also believe that a Tesla Model 3 sold for 28,000$ would be cheap enough to resolve this question to YES, due to to the low fuel costs for the Tesla Model 3 (~3 cents per mile assuming average electricity cost of 12c/kWh and 4 miles per kWh).
