Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Unverified resolution data
This outcome is inferred or unsupported by provider-grade settlement evidence.
Current community forecast≥$0.8T 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
26
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 26 days ago
StaleApr 22, 26, 3:49 AMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Probability Timeline
≥$0.8T95.5%
≥$0.9T90.9%
≥$1T3.1%
≥$1.1T2.1%
≥$1.25T2.3%
≥$1.5T1.9%
≥$1.75T1.5%
≥$2T4.5%
≥$2.5T2.7%
3.1%
2.1%
2.3%
1.9%
1.5%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· ≥$0.8T
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · verified | Low | 100% | — | $6.5K | $0 | 25 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 100% | — | — | — | 26 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by June 30?
Closed
+9.9pt100%
+12.6pt100%
+66.5pt100%
+9 more outcomes
18 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$510.9K
24h Vol$6.5K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Anthropic IPO by __?
$8KDecember 31,: 71%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
$3.2KBefore Sep 1, 2026: 5%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
$2.2KOpenAI: 28%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolves each threshold based on the peak valuation for Anthropic credibly reported with an as-of date on or before 2026-06-30.
- Pre-IPO: valuation is set by primary funding rounds, tender offers, or IPO pricing.
- Secondary transactions between existing investors do not count — they reflect individual trades, not company-endorsed valuation events.
- Post-IPO: valuation = peak market cap between IPO and 2026-06-30 (highest closing share price × shares outstanding at that time).
- ≥$X resolves YES as soon as such a figure meets or exceeds $X; remaining thresholds resolve NO at close.
- Company announcements; SEC filings (S-1, 424B, 10-Q, 10-K); major financial press (The Information, Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ).