KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Vance (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Current implied probability
Vance 99%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$103.4K
Liquidity
$76.1K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleSep 3, 26, 6:30 PMSep 18, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Vance56%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Supreme Court0%
Trump (5+ times)56%
Venezuela35%
ICE0%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
USS Abraham Lincoln24%
Football57%
Epstein0%
Pentagon51%
Iran (3+ times)61%
China / Chinese1%
Tiger Woods34%
OpenAI / Astra0%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
If any host or reporter says the named outcome as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- Video of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.
