KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: JD / Vance (99%)
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, 12:00 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
JD / Vance
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 27, 2026, 11:20 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Settlement provenance
- Standing outcome
- JD / Vance
- Recorded
- Jul 28, 2026, 12:08 AM
- Observations
- 1
- Revisions
- 0
- Method
- resolution_watch
Current implied probabilityJD / Vance 99%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$259.8K
Liquidity
$202K
High liquidityBid / Ask
- / 1.0%
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 27, 26, 5:30 PMAug 11, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Israel / Israeli1%
LeBron1%
Zelenskyy / Ukraine1%
ICE1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
JD / Vance99%
Hurricane1%
Cracker Barrel1%
Iran (3+ times)99%
Ceasefire1%
Nuclear1%
White House Correspondents Dinner1%
Odyssey1%
Trump (3+ times)99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Volume trend
$259.8kJul 272d of dataJul 28
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If any host or reporter says Iran (3+ times) as part of ABC World News Tonight with David Muir , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the ABC World News Tonight with David Muir will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.