KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: LISA (99%)
Resolved: Sep 28, 2026, 2:17 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 28, 2026, 2:12 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
LISA99%
Taylor Swift1%
Ariana Grande1%
Olivia Rodrigo1%
Charli xcx1%
Sabrina Carpenter1%
Tate McRae1%
LISAWon
Taylor SwiftLost
Ariana GrandeLost
Olivia RodrigoLost
Charli xcxLost
Sabrina CarpenterLost
Tate McRaeLost
TieLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome wins Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:MTV
- This market and these products have not been endorsed by the MTV Video Music Awards.
- Any references to the MTV Video Music Awards, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between MTV Video Music Awards and Kalshi.
- If LISA wins Best Pop at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.