KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Biden (99%)
Resolved: Aug 24, 2026, 5:33 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 24, 2026, 4:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
America First36%
Working Class / Middle Class1%
Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime58%
Made in America / American Made1%
Small Business99%
Shipbuilding1%
Lobster1%
Fraud99%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Tariff99%
Timber / Lumber1%
Economy / Economic70%
Investment / Invested97%
Steel99%
Illegal Alien53%
Inflation1%
Healthcare99%
Manufacturing93%
Iran / Iranian1%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability99%
Trump (3+ times)99%
Biden92%
Graham / Platner31%
Democrat97%
China / Chinese99%
Election1%
BidenWon
SteelLost
Small BusinessLost
HealthcareLost
America FirstLost
Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeLost
Economy / EconomicLost
FraudLost
Illegal AlienLost
DemocratLost
China / ChineseLost
ManufacturingLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
TariffLost
BorderLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
Investment / InvestedLost
Iran / IranianLost
Made in America / American MadeLost
LobsterLost
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the remarks at a manufacturing facility in Maine will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- JD Vance speaking in an official capacity.