KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability4.65% or above 12%-3.0%Leader of 19 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$611
Liquidity
$8.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 16.0%
Spread
166.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 17, 26, 11:10 AMJul 31, 26, 7:30 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4.65% or above12%
Volume trend
$611Jul 720d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the par yield for the 7Y U.S.
- Treasury is above 4.14% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 31, 2026, or one week following Jul 31, 2026.
- Treasury is above 4.19% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury is above 4.24% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury is above 4.29% on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.