KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Transgender (99%)
Resolved: Aug 31, 2026, 2:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Transgender
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
97%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 2:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Transgender98%
America First1%
ICE1%
NASA / Space99%
Barack Hussein Obama1%
Russia / Russian99%
Fraud1%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability1%
Save America Act1%
MAGA / Make America Great Again16%
Big Beautiful Bill42%
Stock Market99%
Biden99%
Ukraine99%
Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation1%
Iran (3+ times)55%
Communist / Communism99%
Ceasefire1%
Fake News47%
Crypto / Bitcoin1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
China / Chinese1%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline99%
TransgenderWon
BidenLost
Iran (3+ times)Lost
DemocratLost
Communist / CommunismLost
Socialist / SocialismLost
NASA / SpaceLost
Fake NewsLost
MAGA / Make America Great AgainLost
UkraineLost
HottestLost
Russia / RussianLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Big Beautiful BillLost
Stock MarketLost
Negotiate / Negotiated / NegotiationLost
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Crypto / BitcoinLost
CeasefireLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Fox News: Sunday Night in America using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Fox News: Sunday Night in America will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.