KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Transgender (99%)
Resolved: Aug 24, 2026, 7:56 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Transgender
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 24, 2026, 7:30 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Transgender 99%Leader of 27 outcomes
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$360.1K
Liquidity
$294.3K
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 26, 12:20 PMSep 8, 26, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Biden1%
Iran (3+ times)1%
Crypto / Bitcoin8%
Fake News1%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability1%
Transgender50%
Tuition1%
Big Beautiful Bill91%
Private School1%
America First1%
Melania38%
Teacher / Teachers60%
Fraud1%
Ceasefire12%
AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Tariff1%
Event does not qualify5%
MAGA / Make America Great Again1%
Scholarship82%
Radical Left34%
Hormuz1%
Election1%
China / Chinese24%
Tax Credit / Tax Cut64%
Democrat79%
Barack Hussein Obama1%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Rules
If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the Rose Garden Event using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the Rose Garden Event will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.
