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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. Top AI model this week?
Top AI model this week?

Top AI model this week?

19.0% (24h)AI
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: claude-opus-4-6-thinking (99%)

Resolved: May 30, 2026, 3:50 PM

Winning Outcome

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

—

Current implied probability
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 99%+19.0%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality

63 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$496.2

Liquidity

$637.3

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

99.0% / 100.0%

Spread

1.0%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 13 days ago

Stale
May 23, 26, 5:00 PMMay 30, 26, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

claude-opus-4-6-thinking99%
claude-opus-4-61%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview1%
gpt-5.5-high1%
claude-opus-4-71%
gemini-3-pro1%
muse-spark1%
ernie-5.1-preview1%
qwen3.5-max-preview1%
0%25%50%75%100%May 29May 30May 30
Outcome24hChance
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
+19.0%
99%
claude-opus-4-6
claude-opus-4-6
-3.0%
1%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
1%
gpt-5.5-high
gpt-5.5-high
1%
claude-opus-4-7
claude-opus-4-7
1%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on May 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
  • If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
  • If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
  • If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on May 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If claude-opus-4-6-thinking is the top-ranked AI model on May 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
  • If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
  • If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
  • Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
  • If claude-opus-4-6 is the top-ranked AI model on May 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.