KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 81° or above (88%)
Resolved: Oct 20, 2026, 4:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 20, 2026, 2:48 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
82° or above21%
80° or above99%
81° or above88%
83° or above3%
79° or above90%
78° or above0%
74° or above0%
75° or above0%
76° or above0%
77° or above0%
80° or aboveLost
79° or aboveLost
78° or aboveLost
81° or aboveWon
82° or aboveLost
83° or aboveLost
74° or aboveLost
75° or aboveLost
76° or aboveLost
77° or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Oct 21, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on October 21?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Miami on October 22?
PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 80° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 79° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 78° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 82° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 74° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 73.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 75° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 74.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 76° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 75.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 77° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 20, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.