KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 82° or above (99%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 12, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
85° or above91%
86° or above55%
82° or above99%
87° or above7%
79° or above98%
83° or above99%
88° or above1%
84° or above99%
81° or above99%
80° or above99%
82° or aboveWon
83° or aboveLost
84° or aboveLost
81° or aboveLost
80° or aboveLost
79° or aboveLost
85° or aboveLost
86° or aboveLost
87° or aboveLost
88° or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 82° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 84° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 83.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 80° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 79° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 85° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 84.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 86° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 85.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 87° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 86.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 88° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 12, 2026 at 11 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 87.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.