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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?
What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?

One-OffTrade PolicyChinaEurope19d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Between 10% and 19.99%
Between 10% and 19.99% 81%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0.1

Liquidity

$343

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

82.0% / 87.0%

Spread

6.1%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PMJul 1, 26, 3:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Between 50% and 60%
Between 50% and 60%
0%

Selected outcome

Between 10% and 19.99%81%

Rules

If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date.
  • This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country.
  • Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify.
  • The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions.
  • If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.

Macro-Sensitive Assets

BitcoinBTC$62,632.64+2.54%EthereumETH$1,651.33+2.14%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.78%

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Rules

If the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026 is below 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date.
  • This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country.
  • Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify.
  • The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions.
  • If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.